中国对外直接投资影响母国环境的理论机理与实证研究

经济全球化背景下,中国工业化进程深度融入全球价值链分工体系,在以资源能源消耗与要素投入增加为特征的粗放型经济增长模式下,国际贸易与国际投资在带动中国经济迅速发展的同时,也不可避免地影响国内的资源环境形势。基于此,本文以中国为研究对象,探究对外直接投资对母国环境的影响及其作用机制,对于“一带一路”战略背景下中国改善生态环境质量、推动经济绿色发展,具有重要的现实意义。本文首先从经济规模扩张、产业结构转型以及技术水平增进等三个视角,构建起对外直接投资影响母国环境的理论框架,并提出相应研究假说。随后,基于中介效应法,构建动态面板模型,在核算各省综合污染指数基础上,结合省级面板数据与系统GMM估计方法,实证探究对外直接投资对母国环境的基本影响,并对其作用机制进行了检验、识别与分析。多个角度开展的稳健性检验依然表明实证结果是稳健的。研究结论如下:一是对外直接投资通过推动母国经济规模扩张,导致其污染物排放增加;二是对外直接投资通过促进母国产业结构朝向服务化转型,有利于减少其污染物排放;三是对外直接投资通过引致反向技术溢出效应,有利于母国污染物排放减少;四是综合来看,当前中国推动对外直接投资,有利于减少母国污染物排放。最后,本文从优化国际投资结构、强化技术领域国际合作等方面提出促进中国环境治理的政策建议。

The home-country environmental effects of China’s OFDI: a theoretical mechanism and empirical study

Under the background of economic globalization,the industrialization of China is deeply integrated into the division system of the global value chain.Under the extensive economic growth model characterized by increased resource and energy consumption and factor input,international trade and international investment are driving China’s rapid economic development as well as inevitably affecting the domestic resource and environmental situation.Based on that,the paper takes China as an example and explores the impact of OFDI on home-country environment and its mechanism of action.This is of great practical significance for improving China’s ecological and environmental quality,promoting green economic development and building ecological civilization under the background of‘the Belt and Road Initiative’.Firstly,this paper constructs the theoretical framework of the impact of OFDI on the home-country environment from the perspectives of scale expansion of economic activities,industrial structure transformation and technological advancement,and puts forward hypotheses accordingly.Secondly,based on the intermediary effect method,this study establishes the dynamic panel models and estimates the comprehensive pollution index of each province to test the effects of OFDI on home-country environment with the application of provincial panel data and system GMM estimation and its mechanism of action was tested,identified and analyzed.Robustness tests conducted from multiple angles still indicate that the empirical results are robust.The conclusions are as follows:①OFDI promotes the expansion of home-country’s economic scale,which leads to the increase of pollutant emission.②OFDI reduces home-country’s pollutant emissions by promoting the service-oriented transformation of industrial structure.③OFDI reduces home-country’s pollutant emissions by inducing reverse technology spillover effects.④Generally speaking,China’s OFDI is conducive to improving the home-country environment.Finally,this paper puts forward policy recommendations to promote environmental governance and China’s green and low-carbon development with fewer pollutant emissions from the perspective of optimizing the structure of international investment and strengthening international cooperation in the field of technology.