中国可再生能源政策演化、效果评估与未来展望

发展可再生能源已成为中国能源转型及减缓气候变化的关键途径。2006年《可再生能源法》实施至今,中国可再生发展取得举世瞩目成绩。然而可再生能源在中国整个能源结构中的占比仍然偏低,其未来可持续发展仍面临挑战,如可再生能源发展资金缺口持续扩大,可再生能源电力消纳仍然面临一定障碍。在未来新的发展背景下,有必要对中国可再生能源政策进行系统的评估和总结,进一步探讨未来可再生能源政策的优化方案。本文首先对中国2005—2019年可再生能源政策的发展历程及演化路径进行总结梳理,基于不同时期的发展特点及面临的主要矛盾将中国可再生能源政策历程划分为四个阶段;然后在综述相关研究基础上,对中国可再生能源政策的实施效果进行评估,包括政策有效性、政策成本、技术进步等。结果表明,中国过去十年的可再生能源政策对促进可再生能源快速发展是积极有效的,而促进可再生能源发展的政策成本仍然有进一步下降的空间;另外,虽然中国可再生能源发电成本下降显著,然而基于历史经验的技术进步率仍然不足以支撑实现中国2020年平价上网的目标,未来需要进一步推动可再生能源技术的进步和发电成本的下降。结合当前及未来中国可再生能源发展所处阶段的特点及面临挑战,我们提出进一步完善中国可再生能源政策以促进可再生能源持续稳定发展的政策建议,一是完善可再生能源绿色电力证书交易制度,增强可再生能源发展的内生激励并降低政策实施成本;二是建立储能技术市场机制,为减少弃电以及推动可再生能源消纳提供政策支持;三是推进碳金融体系建设,为可再生能源发展提供新的融资来源并降低发电成本。

The evolution and evaluation of China’s renewable energy policies and their implications for the future

Renewable energy plays an important role in the promotion of China’s energy transformation and climate change mitigation.Since the implementation of the Renewable Energy Law in 2006,China has made remarkable achievements in the development of renewable energy.However,the proportion of renewable energy in China is still low,and there are still challenges in the process of achieving sustainable development of renewable energy in the future.For example,the funding gap of renewable energy is widening and the renewable power curtailment is still serious,which will hinder the renewable energy power development in China.Against this new background,it is necessary to evaluate China’s existing renewable energy policies and explore the ways of improving the policy system in the future.Firstly,we summarized the renewable energy policies in China from 2005 to 2019 and then divided this period into four stages based on the characteristics and contradictions facing the renewable energy sector.Secondly,based on a review of a number of relevant studies,we evaluated the effect of China’s renewable energy policies,including policy effectiveness,cost-effectiveness and dynamic efficiency.The results show that China’s renewable energy policies were effective in promoting renewable energy expansion in the past decade,while their cost-effectiveness can be improved further.In addition,although the cost of renewable energy has significantly decreased,grid parity may not be achieved in 2020 based on the historical rate of technology progress,and it is still necessary to take further measures to reduce renewable energy cost.Finally,based on the characteristics and challenges of renewable energy development in China,we put forward some suggestions for the improvement of renewable energy policy system so as to promote the sustainable development of renewable energy.Firstly,the green certificate trading system should be introduced and gradually improved to provide more incentives for renewable energy development and lowering the cost of policy implementation.Secondly,the energy storage market system can be introduced so that renewable power curtailment issues can be resolved.Thirdly,the carbon pricing system can be improved to provide financing sources for renewable energy development and lowering the cost of power-generation in the future.