气候变化研究的中国知识贡献及其影响局限

气候变化知识的不断深化和积累是全球气候治理的基础。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)邀请全球有代表性的科学家,通过分析评估国际上正式发表的文献,提供关于全球气候变化科学进展的最新认识结论。本文基于文献计量学,通过统计中国在气候变化十大重要领域的科技成果产出量和影响力、中国政府和科学家对IPCC评估报告的参与以及中国大陆引文在IPCC第五次评估报告中的贡献,分析了中国对全球气候变化知识的贡献与局限。结果表明:近十年来,中国在气候变化大多数领域的科技成果产出量已居全球第二或第三位,但在海洋与气候变化、适应气候变化和全球气候治理领域的国际论文量明显落后;与美国和英国相比,中国气候变化科技成果的各类影响力指标明显偏低;中国对IPCC评估报告的参与度和影响力在不断提升,中国积极组织相关机构和专家参与IPCC评估工作,对全球气候治理起到了重要的科学支撑作用;但从IPCC第五次评估报告中国大陆引文的角度看,中国贡献仍整体偏弱,中国大陆引文的贡献呈领域分布不均衡,优势领域少,成果影响面窄的特点。与科学基础领域相比,中国在影响和适应、减缓和国际合作领域的科学贡献更弱,对全球视角关注不够,但中国大陆引文总体的国际科学合作活跃度较高。后巴黎时代,中国需要更加面向国家需求、气候公约和《巴黎协定》目标以及国际气候变化科技前沿,加强全球视野和原始创新,突出中国优势和特色,使气候变化的中国研究成果更多支撑全球气候治理进程的推进。

Contribution of China’s research on climate change and its limitations

Continuous accumulation of climate research is the foundation of global climate governance.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)invites representative scientists around the world to provide the latest scientific insight into climate change through analysis and assessment of peer-reviewed publications.This article attempts to discuss the contribution of China’s research and its limitations by analyzing the scientific papers in ten important areas of climate change research and their impact indicators,the participation of Chinese government and scientists in the IPCC assessment works and the references belonging to China of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Reports.The results show that China has already become the second or third largest contributor of scientific and technological publications in most areas of climate change in the past ten years.However,compared with the U.S.and the U.K.,the impact indicators of these achievements of China are significantly lower.China still lags behind in the areas of ocean and climate change,adaptation to climate change and global climate governance.China’s participation in and influence on the IPCC assessment works and reports are on the rise,and it has actively organized relevant institutions and experts to participate in the IPCC assessment work,which has played an important scientific supporting role in global climate governance.However,in the case of IPCC AR5,China’s general contribution is still weak.China’s publications in IPCC AR5 are characterized by their uneven distribution,few advantageous areas and narrow influence;in comparison with China’s contribution in the basic scientific areas,its contribution to climate change impact and adaptation,climate change mitigation and international governance is still insufficient.The study also finds that the general involvement of China’s publications in international cooperation is comparatively high.In the post-Paris era,China should be more responsive to its national need,to the goals of UNFCCC and Paris Agreement and scientific frontiers,enhance its global vision and original innovation,and contribute more to global climate governance based on its climate change research.