基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的京冀区际环境污染转移的测度研究

由于区域产生污染的数量与其产业形态存在密切联系,伴随着京冀区际产业转移,京冀也存在明显的区域内环境污染源的转移。本文使用环境库兹涅茨曲线测度北京市和河北省的污染转移状况,以SO2排放为研究对象,将污染分为自生性污染和转移性污染,通过使用2000—2018年的面板数据拟合环境库兹涅茨曲线进行测度,并采用向量自回归模型(VAR)分析北京市和河北省转移性SO2排放量的相关性,结果表明:①北京市实际人均SO2排放量与拟合值的差值基本为负值,河北省的实际人均SO2排放量与拟合值的差值基本为正值。说明北京市人均SO2的排放量低于与人均GDP发展水平相适应的污染物排放,存在转出性污染;河北省人均SO2的排放量超过了与人均GDP发展水平相适应的污染物排放,存在转入性污染。②北京市SO2转移性排放总量呈稳步下降状态,而河北省的SO2转移性排放量呈先上升后下降状态,说明北京市和河北省的环境状况都在改善。③北京市转移性SO2排放量的下降与河北省转移性SO2排放量的上升是具有相关性的,说明北京市和河北省之间存在转移性污染。本文为量化区域内转移性污染提供了一种可行性研究方法,并为改善区域整体环境状况提供了参考依据。

Measurement of environmental pollution transfer in Beijing-Hebei Region based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve

Due to the close relationship between the amount of regional pollution and the industrial form,along with the inter-regional industry transfer between Beijing and Hebei,there exists an obvious transfer of environmental pollution sources within the region.This article used the Kuznets Curve to measure the pollution transfer between Beijing and Hebei Province,with sulfur dioxide emissions as the research object.Pollution was classified into spontaneous pollution and transferable pollution by using the panel data of 2000-2018 to measure the Environmental Kuznets Curve,and the vector autoregressive model(VAR)analysis was used to analyze the metastatic correlation of sulfur dioxide emissions in Beijing and Hebei.The results showed that:①the difference between the actual per capita sulfur dioxide emissions in Beijing and the fitted value was negative,and the difference between the actual per capita sulfur dioxide emissions in Hebei Province and the fitted value was basically positive,which suggested that Beijing’s per capita sulfur dioxide emissions were lower than the pollutant emissions corresponding to the level of per capita GDP development,thus export pollution existed.The per capita emissions of sulfur dioxide in Hebei Province exceeded the pollutant emissions corresponding to the level of per capita GDP development,thus transitional pollution existed.②the total amount of transferred sulfur dioxide emissions in Beijing showed a steady decline,while that in Hebei Province showed a first rise and then decline trend,indicating that the environmental conditions of both Beijing and Hebei Province were improving.③the decrease of transferred sulfur dioxide emissions in Beijing was correlated with the increase of transferred sulfur dioxide emissions in Hebei Province,indicating the existence of transferred pollution between Beijing and Hebei Province.This article provides a feasibility research method for the quantification of regional transferable pollution,and provides a reference for the improvement of the overall environmental situation within the region.