农地流转与农户生计策略联合决策研究

基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年农村住户数据,采用多元probit模型实证检验了农户土地流转决策、农户种植经济作物决策和非农劳动力转移决策之间的相互影响。研究发现:①农户土地流转与劳动力非农转移和经济作物种植生计决策相互关联。总体而言,土地转入与种植经济作物决策正相关,与非农劳动力转移决策负相关。土地转出与非农劳动力转移决策正相关,与种植经济作物决策负相关。②土地流转与农户非农劳动力转移和经济作物种植等生计策略的关系与农地流转规模相关,小规模和中等规模的土地转入与非农劳动力转移之间未有显著关系,与经济作物种植决策具有显著正向关系,但大规模的土地转入与农户经济作物种植决策和非农就业决策显著负相关。③土地流转是否影响农户生计多样化决策还取决于地区机械化程度。机械化程度较高的平原地区土地转入决策与农户非农劳动力转移和经济作物种植决策未有显著关系,而机械化程度较低的高山、丘陵、高原等地区土地转入决策与农户种植经济作物和非农就业决策分别存在正相关和负相关关系,表明随着机械化对农业劳动力替代程度的增强,土地流转对农户劳动力配置的影响效应减弱。政策建议是:①统筹推进农村土地、劳动力市场发展,推动农户土地流转参与,促进转出户生计向非农专业化转移,促进转入户农地适度规模经营;②完善农机社会化服务市场,提高农机和农技融合使用深度和广度,提高农机对农业劳动力的替代弹性,增强转入户农业劳动力农地规模经营的能力,增加农业生产比较收益。

Joint-decision making of land transfer and household livelihood strategies

Based on the rural survey data investigated in 2014 by China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper used multivariate probit model to study the joint-decision of land transfer,cash crop planting and off-farm labor employment.Results show that:①Farmer’sdecision to participate in land transfer is related to their decisions of off-farm labor employment and cash crop planting.Overall,households’land renting-in decision was positively related to cash crop planting decision,while had negative relation with offfarm labor employment decision.Households’land renting-out decision had negative relation with cash crop planting,while was positively related to off-farm labor employment decision.②There are heterogeneous effects of land renting-in scale and households’livelihood strategies.Small and medium scale land renting-in decision was not correlated with households’off-farm labor allocation decision,and was significantly negative correlated with cash crop planting,while large scale land renting-in decision was negatively correlated with the decisions of off-farm labor employment and cash crop planting.③The real relationship of land renting-in decision with livelihood diversification strategies was also determined by regional mechanization level.Farmer’s renting-in decision in plain areas with high degree of mechanization level had no significant correction with their livelihood diversification strategies,while farmer’s renting-in decision in areas(mountains,hills and plateaus)with low mechanization level was positively correlated with cash crop planting decision,while negatively correlated with off-farm employment decision.Result indicates that the impact of land transfer on household’s labor allocation will be weakened with when the substitution between mechanization and farm labor become stronger.The policy implications are:①It is necessary to further integrate land and labor markets,to encourage rural households’land rental participation,and to promote renting-out households specializing in off-farm work and renting-in farmers’moderate land scale management.②Mechanization service should further be refined,to integrate the combination of mechanization service and technique,and improve the substitution of machinery and labor,and increase farmers’land scale management ability,reduce the impact of renting-in on off-farm labor allocation and increase farming comparative benefits.