沙化区生态移民的沙化感知、社会影响和适应性策略

生态移民工程是中国政府为保护生态环境和缩减贫困人口实施的重要举措,让生态移民对气候变化产生的土地沙化有感知并尽快采取适应性策略,对防止生态移民成为“生态难民”有重要意义。本文基于社会影响理论和风险-处理能力-社会评价-适应(RCSA)的分析框架,使用在内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市和巴彦淖尔市调查的506户生态移民在土地沙化感知、社会影响与采取的适应性策略方面的调查数据,并使用Heckman两阶段模型和多分类Logit模型回归研究,发现:①沙化区生态移民对土地沙化的感知是移民对土地沙化采取适应性策略的先决条件,但并非感知到了土地沙化的生态移民就一定会采取适应性的防治措施。②沙化区的生态移民在新安置区受到的社会影响对移民是否有能力采取应对土地沙化的适应性策略有显著性的影响。③体现移民家庭风险处理能力的部分资产变量对移民的土地沙化感知以及采取的适应性策略有显著的正向影响。为更好地帮助生态移民减少气候变化、土地沙化带来的不利影响,沙化安置区基层政府除了让新搬迁来的生态移民积极增强资产能力外,还要帮助他们积极融入新的社区,拓宽宣传气候变化知识的渠道,增加宣传内容的多样性,引导生态移民了解应对土地沙化的技巧和方法,帮助移民减少土地沙化带来的经济损失。

Sense of land desertification,social influence and adaptive measures of eco-immigrants in desertification areas

The eco-immigrant program,adopted by the Chinese government as an important measure to protect the environment and reduce poverty,is a very important policy for the government to alert the‘eco-immigrants’to the threat of land desertification and to prompt them to adopt relevant measures,so as to prevent them from becoming‘eco-refugees’.Based on the social influence theory and the Risk-Coping-Social Appraisal model of adaptation framework as well as the data on the sense of land desertification,social influence and adaptive measures of 506 households surveyed in Ordos and Bayan Nur,Inner Mongolia,this paper carried out an analysisi by using Heckman’s two-stage model and multinomial logistic model and found that:First,the sense of land desertification was a prerequisite for eco-immigrants to take adaptive strategies,but this sense did not necessarily indicate that they could adopt adaptive countermeasures.Second,the social influence eco-immigrants received in resettlement sites had significant effect on their ability to take countermeasures against land desertification.Third,some asset variables reflecting the immigrants’coping ability affected positively the sense of land desertification and subsequent adaptive countermeasures.In order to mitigate the negative effect by climate change and land desertification,local government should encourage the immigrants to accumulate their assets,help them integrate into new communites,promote the knowledge on climate change through more channels,diversify the contents of such promotions,guide the immigrants to learn more strategies and methods to combat land desertification,so as to minimize the economic losses caused by land desertification.