整合消费与增加值视角的中国行业碳排放变动分解研究

在研究影响我国CO 2排放因素领域,基于投入产出技术的分解模型已成为主要的分析工具,现有研究多分别基于消费视角或收益视角展开分析。为全面评估各行业收益与消费对其上游、下游行业碳排放的综合影响,整合基于收益与基于消费两个视角,运用2012年与2015年我国投入产出表,构建两层嵌套式结构分解分析模型(SDA),比较分析消费规模效应、收益规模效应、行业流入、流出增加值变动效应、增加值结构变动效应等14个影响各行业碳排放变动的关键因素,并借助对消费者原则碳排放估算公式的重构,更准确地实现从增加值视角对各行业消费者原则碳排放变动的关键影响因素分析。研究发现:①研究期内,我国在总产出增长29.14%的同时碳排放量上升1.46%,各行业碳排放强度下降是主要的减排因素,其中建筑业减排贡献最大。②增排效应方面,影响从大到小依次为消费规模、收益规模、完全投入结构与完全消费结构四项效应,且前两个规模效应的影响是后两个结构效应的2倍以上,尤其建筑业消费规模效应、煤炭采选产品业收益规模效应增排较大。③消费规模扩大导致增排的原因并非行业本身生产规模扩大,而主要在于建筑业、服务业等行业规模扩张时吸收其他行业流入的增加值量增多。④收益规模扩大导致的增排效应方面,细分来说从大到小依次为劳动者报酬、生产税净额、固定资产折旧、营业盈余四项效应,且行业差异显著,如煤炭采选产品业的劳动者报酬效应,石油、炼焦产品和核燃料加工品业的生产税净额效应以及电力、热力生产和供应业的营业盈余效应增排贡献较大,而煤炭采选产品业的营业盈余效应、批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业的生产税净额效应则减排贡献较大。

Decomposition analysis of China’s industrial carbon emission change based on consumption and value-added integrated perspective

In the field of studying factors affecting China’s CO 2 emissions,input-output technology and decomposition analysis model has become a major analysis tool.Most of existing studies are conducted from the perspective of consumption or income.In order to comprehensively evaluate the aggregated impact of income and consumption of industries to their consumption-based and income-based responsibility of carbon emissions,this study used 2012 and 2015 China Input-Output Tables to construct the double-layer structural decomposition model and compare 14 key factors to affect carbon emissions change of different industries such as value added amount or consumption amount effect,foreign value-added absorb/domestic value-added export effect as well as value-added structure effect.This study has accomplished a better analysis on consumption-based carbon emission change from value-added perspective with the help an innovative reconstruction of the consumption-based formula.The research showed:①The decrease of carbon intensity a.k.a CEE or IEE,is the main factor of carbon emission reduction which actually effectively contains the growth of carbon emission(1.46%)while maintains economic growth.The CEE of construction industry contributes the biggest emission reduction influence among all industries.②In terms of emission increase factors,the consumption scale/income scale and complete input structure/complete consumption structure in that order are the largest influence factors while the scale factors are more than two times of structure factors.The IYE of construction industry and IVE of coal mining and dressing industry are the largest factors among all industries.The above two structure effects not only hold limited contribution on emission increase but also appear no significant difference among industries.③From the perspective of added value,the expansion of consumption scale that results in carbon emission increase does not mean the enlargement of production scale of industries themselves,but to some certain,refers the expansion of value-added absorbing amount from other industries,such as construction industry and others(service)industry.④From perspective of emission increase caused by the expansion of profit scale,emission accelerating factors from high to low levels are the remuneration for workers(IV 1E),net production tax(IV 2E),depreciation of fixed assets(IV 3E)and operating surplus(IV 4E),which are extremely diverse among industries.IV 1E of coal mining and dressing,IV 2E of petroleum processing and coking and IV 4E of production and supply of electric power,steam and hot water are the largest emission accelerating factors,while IV 4E of coal mining and dressing,IV 2E of wholesale,retail trade and catering services are the biggest emission reduction factors.