京津冀生态文明与城市化协调发展的时序与空间演变

构建反映生态文明与城市化发展内涵的两系统评价指标体系,以均方差决策法、耦合协调度模型、探索性空间数据分析(ESDA),借助Arc GIS软件从时间和空间两个维度定量分析京津冀13市2007—2016年生态文明与城市化的耦合协调关系及变化趋势。结果表明:①生态文明与城市化系统耦合协调度逐年提升,从2007年13市均处于拮抗发展阶段,到2016年实现较低水平协调,多数城市生态文明建设滞后于城市化进程。②生态文明与城市化耦合协调发展水平存在显著的全局正向空间自相关性,局部空间自相关性存在显著的空间集聚特征,处于高-高集聚区与低-低集聚区的城市最多,北京、廊坊和保定三地的局部空间自相关性最为显著,此三地对周围临近城市的辐射能力更强。基于分析结论,提出实现京津冀13市生态文明与城市化高质量耦合协调发展的策略:①将生态文明建设融入城市化进程,强力推进京津冀"弱势区域"生态文明建设与城市化"同频共振",推动京津两地优势资源向河北溢出和辐射。②强化三地的区域协作,促进共同发展,充分利用高水平集聚区的示范效应,带动和提升低水平集聚区协调发展,加强三地环境治理的联防联控,构建共建共治发展平台。③根据耦合协调度"中间高、南北低"的空间分布差异,三地政府还需根据自身特色,因地制宜研判和明确发展策略。

Study on the time and space evolution of the coordinated development of ecological civilization and urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

In the current severe situation of tightening resource constraints,serious environmental pollution and ecosystem degradation,it is of great strategic significance for promoting the coordinated and integrative development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei and exploring the coupling coordination relationship between ecological civilization and urbanization of 13 cities in this region.This paper constructs a two-system evaluation index system that reflects the connotations of ecological civilization and urbanization development.With the help of mean square error decision method,coupling coordination degree model,exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)and Arc GIS software,the coupling coordination relationship and its change trend of ecological civilization construction and urbanization of 13 cities from 2007 to 2016 were quantitatively analyzed from two dimensions of time and space.The results show that:First,the coupling coordination degree of ecological civilization and urbanization system had been improved year by year.From the antagonistic development stage of 13 cities in 2007 to their low-level coordinated development in 2016,urban ecological civilization construction lags behind the urbanization process in most of cities.Second,the coupling coordination development level of ecological civilization and urbanization has a significant global positive spatial auto-correlation.Local spatial auto-correlation has a significant spatial agglomeration characteristic.Most of cities are in high-high agglomeration area and low-low agglomeration area.It can be seen that Beijing,Langfang and Baoding have the highest significant local spatial auto-correlation from the Lisa cluster diagram,and they have stronger radiation capacity to the surrounding cities.Based on the results of the empirical analysis,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:①Integrating the ecological civilization construction into the process of urbanization,strongly promoting the‘same frequency resonance’of ecological civilization construction and urbanization of‘weak regions’in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and promoting the spillover and radiation of advantageous resources from Beijing and Tianjin to Hebei;②strengthening the corporation among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,promoting the common development,making full use of the demonstration effect of high-level agglomeration areas,driving and raising the coordinated development of low-level agglomeration areas,strengthening the joint prevention and control of environmental governance among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and constructing co-governance development platform;③according to the spatial distribution difference pattern of coupling coordination degree which is‘high in the middle and low in the north and south’,the governments of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei need to determine development strategies according to their local conditions.