西安市近20年来气温变化与人口变动的关联度分析

当前,气候变化备受全球关注.从人口角度研究气候变化可正确判断和把握影响气候的人口因素,对制定减缓气候变化的政策和措施具有重要意义.通过分析西安市近60年来的年平均气温资料可知,西安市气温与全球气候变化一样,有变暖的趋势,且增温幅度高于全国平均值.通过二次项拟合分析西安市气温变化与人口变化关系,得出总人口数量与气温之间不存在明显的线性关系.利用西安市1991-2010年的年平均气温、就业人数、第二产业人数、家庭户数以及反映人口消费结构的恩格尔系数的时间序列数据,运用灰色关联分析法进行分析.结果发现,第二产业人数与气温的关联度最高,为0.8163；总家庭户数与气温的关联度次之,为0.7289.灰色关联是根据序列曲线几何形状的相似程度来判断其联系是否紧密,人口结构与气候变化之间是否存在机理关系还需要进一步研究.

Correlation Degree Analysis of Temperature Changes and Population Changes in the Past 20 Years of Xi′an City

Climate change received more and more attention at present.The exploration of climate change from the perspective of population structure had significance for stipulating climate change mitigation policies and measures.This paper analyzed the Xi′an nearly 60 years the average annual air temperature data,it showed that the temperature in Xi′an,with global climate change,had a warming trend,and the warming rate was higher than the urban average.There was no clear linear relationship between the total population and the temperature by quadratic regression analysis.Based on the time-series data of the employment,the second industry working population,household,Engel′s coefficient,during the period of 1991 to 2010,using gray correlative analysis theory,this paper made an analysis of the relation between average annual air temperature and the population structure.The conclusions were:The correlation degree was highest of secondary industry and the temperature,and the number was 0.8163,the correlation degree followed by 0.7289 of the total number of households and the temperature.The gray relational degree determined the contact tightness by the similarity of the sequence of curve geometry,the further research was needed in the mechanism of population structure′s impact on climate change.