An island biogeography approach for understanding changes in compositional similarity at present scenario of biotic homogenization

Local extinction of native species and colonization of non-native species are commonly invoked as responsible for changes in species similarity among biotas of different regions. In this study we used a model of species similarity between islands to assess the emergent, and unexplored, effects of changes in colonization by native species, extinction of non-native species, and propagule pressure on species similarity among insular communities. The model predicts that extinction probability of endemic species has a positive but asymptotic effect on species similarity, which is exacerbated by increasing colonization and reducing extinction of non-native species. Species similarity tends to increase with increasing colonization probability by non-native species, however this effect may be reduced, or even reverted, when the islands are exposed to an elevated number of non-native species that are prone to extinction, high levels of endemic species loss, and an initially large number of native species shared between islands. Species similarity was positively affected by the propagule pressure rate of non-native species only when their colonization and extinction probabilities were large and small enough, respectively. A negative effect of propagule pressure rate can be caused by an increase in the pool size of non-native species, which involves the introduction of different species into different islands, promoting biotic differentiation between islands. Our results indicate that the interactions between colonization, extinction and species pool lead to nonlinear responses and unexpected scenarios of biotic change. In order to validate model predictions, future research programs should focus on understanding the dynamics on such complex meta-communities where coexist native, non-native and endemic species.