A simple plankton model for the Oregon upwelling ecosystem: Sensitivity and validation against time-series ocean data

Simple plankton models serve as useful platforms for testing our understanding of the mechanisms underlying ecosystem dynamics. A simple, one-dimensional plankton model was developed to describe the dynamics of nitrate, ammonium, two phytoplankton size-classes, meso-zooplankton, and detritus in the Oregon upwelling ecosystem. Computational simplicity was maintained by linking the biological model to a one-dimensional, cross-shelf physical model driven by the daily coastal upwelling index. The model sacrificed resolution of regional-scale and along-shore (north to south) processes and assumed that seasonal productivity is primarily driven by local cross-shelf Ekman transport of surface waters and upwelling of nutrient-rich water from depth.Our goals were to see how well a simple plankton model could capture the general temporal and spatial dynamics of the system, test system sensitivity to alternate parameter set values, and observe system response to the effective scale of potential retention mechanisms. Model performance across the central Oregon shelf was evaluated against two years (2000-2001) of chlorophyll and copepod time-series observations. While the modeled meso-zooplankton biomass was close in scale to the observed copepod biomass, phytoplankton was overestimated relative to that inferred from the observed surface chlorophyll concentration. Inshore, the system was most sensitive to the nutrient uptake kinetics of diatom-size phytoplankton and to the functional grazing response of meso-zooplankton. Meso-zooplankton was more sensitive to alternate parameter values than was phytoplankton. Reduction of meso-zooplankton cross-shelf advection rates (crudely representing behavioral retention mechanisms) reduced the scale of model error relative to the observed seasonal mean inshore copepod biomass but had little effect of the modeled meso-zooplankton biomass offshore nor upon phytoplankton biomass across the entire shelf.