Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: A stress-testing case study for the UK XXX |
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| Institution: | 1. The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebucker, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, United Kingdom;2. Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, S Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom;3. Faculty of Environment and Technology, University of the West of England, Coldharbour Lane, Frenchay Campus, Bristol BS16 1QY, United Kingdom;4. School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom;5. Urban Pollution Research Centre, School of Science and Technology, Middlesex University, London NW4 4BT, United Kingdom;6. Centre for Ecosystems, Society and Biosecurity, Forest Research, Bush Estate, Roslin EH25 9SY, United Kingdom;7. Department of Geography, School of the Environment, University of Dundee, Nethergate, Dundee DD1 4HN, United Kingdom;8. Urban Water Technology Centre, School of Science Engineering and Technology, Abertay University, Dundee DD1 1HG, United Kingdom;9. Centre for Ecosystems, Society and Biosecurity, Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham, Surrey GU10 4LH, United Kingdom;1. School of Psychology, Massey University, Palmerston North 4424, New Zealand;2. School of Psychological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Australia;1. CNR, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Via Salaria Km 29,300, I-00015 Monterotondo St., Rome, Italy;2. CNR, Institute for Complex Systems, Via Salaria Km 29,300, I-00015 Monterotondo St., Rome, Italy;1. Botanical Institute Christian-Albrechts University Kiel, Olshausenstraße 40, DE 24098 Kiel, Germany;2. Biogeochemical Modelling, GEOMAR, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany;1. Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation, Department of Political Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa;2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK |
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| Abstract: | A diverse range of response options was evaluated in terms of their utility for sustaining ecosystem services in the UK. Robustness of response options was investigated by applying a ‘stress-testing’ method which evaluated expected performance against combined scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change. Based upon stakeholder feedback, a reference scenario representing current trends in climate and socioeconomic drivers (‘business-as-usual’) was used as a dynamic baseline against which to compare results of other scenarios. The robustness of response options was evaluated by their utility in different environmental and social contexts as represented by the scenarios, and linked to their adaptability to adjust to changing conditions. Key findings demonstrate that adaptability becomes increasingly valuable as the magnitude and rate of future change diverges from current trends. Stress-testing also revealed that individual responses in isolation are unlikely to be robust meaning there are advantages from integrating cohesive combinations (bundles) of response options to maximise their individual strengths and compensate for weaknesses. This identifies a role for both top-down and bottom-up responses, including regulation, spatial targeting, incentives and partnership initiatives, and their use in combination through integrated assessment and planning consistent with the adoption of an Ecosystem Approach. Stress-testing approaches can have an important role in future-proofing policy appraisals but important knowledge gaps remain, especially for cultural and supporting ecosystem services. Finally, barriers and enablers to the implementation of more integrated long-term adaptive responses were identified drawing on the ‘4 Is’ (Institutions, Information, Incentives, Identity) conceptual framework. This highlighted the crucial but usually understated role of identity in promoting ownership and uptake of responses. |
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| Keywords: | Policy appraisal Ecosystem services Scenario analysis Integrated assessment Decision-making Cross-scale responses Integrated responses |
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