| 基于灰色马尔科夫模型的钻孔瓦斯流量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈钊,徐阿猛.基于灰色马尔科夫模型的钻孔瓦斯流量预测[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(3):79-85. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈钊 徐阿猛 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国矿业大学资源与安全工程学院,北京100083;国家安全监督管理总局国家矿山救援指挥中心,北京100713
2. 华北科技学院安全工程学院,北京,101601 |
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| 摘 要： | 钻孔瓦斯流量是影响矿井瓦斯抽放效果的一个重要因素,为准确预测钻孔瓦斯流量,优化矿井瓦斯抽放工艺,将灰色系统理论与马尔科夫链预测相结合,充分利用两者的优点,通过对瓦斯流量原始数据处理,瓦斯流量状态划分,构建马尔科夫转移概率矩阵及Matlab分析软件进行计算的方法,建立灰色马尔科夫预测模型。结合现场工程实例,将该预测模型和GM(1,1)预测模型进行比较分析,结果表明,利用灰色马尔科夫模型预测钻孔瓦斯流量,能够消除GM(1,1)模型本身固有偏差,预测值平均相对误差为2.16%,最大相对误差仅为5.40%,均优于GM(1,1)模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 钻孔瓦斯流量 GM(1 1)模型 灰色马尔科夫链 状态划分 Matlab分析软件 |
Prediction of Gas Flow-rate from Boreholes Based on Grey Markov Model |
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| CHEN Zhao
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XU A-meng.Prediction of Gas Flow-rate from Boreholes Based on Grey Markov Model[J].China Safety Science Journal,2012,22(3):79-85. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Zhao XU A-meng |
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| Institution: | 1 School of Resource and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining & Technology,Beijing 100083,China 2 State Mine Rescue Command Center,State Administration of Work Safety,Beijing 100713,China 3 School of Safety Engineering,North China Institute of Science & Technology,Beijing 101601,China) |
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| Abstract: | Gas flow-rate from borehole is an important factor influencing mine gas drawing-off effectiveness.In order to predict accurately gas flow-rate and to optimize mine gas drawing-off technique,a grey Markov prediction model of gas flow-rate from borehole was built.The model is exemplified with a real case in which the prediction model of grey Markov was compared with GM(1,1) model.The results show that the grey Markov prediction model eliminates the inherent bias of the GM(1,1)model.The average relative error is 2.16% and the maximum relative error is 5.40%,which are all better than that by the GM(1,1)model. |
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| Keywords: | gas flow-rate from borehole GM(1 1) model grey Markov chain classifying state Matlab analysis software |
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