北方旱农区玉米自然降水生产潜力研究

针对我国北方水资源匮乏日益严重的状况,利用CERES-Maize作物模型模拟分析了北方旱区玉米自然降水生产潜力及其时空分布规律。研究表明,我国北方旱区玉米的水分生产潜力大小排序依次是半湿润区>半干旱区>干旱区,半湿润区的玉米自然降水生产潜力大约为11000kg/hm₂,干旱区大约在5000kg/hm₂,但同时半湿润区潜力的年际间波动性也最显著,干旱区则相对较为稳定。我国北方旱区东部的玉米生产潜力高于西部,但南北方向潜力差异不明显。

Studies on the Potential Productivity of Rain-fed Maize in Dry-land Area of Northern China

Drought and water shortage are the major influencing factors to sustainable agricultural development in northern China,as most of it is located in arid and semi-arid areas.Meanwhile,northern China is also an important grain producing base of the country.Exploiting the major crops potential productivity in macro-scale could provide consultative information and priority regions for the formulation of development strategy.Considering the water shortage situation and its key role in grain production in northern China,CERES-maize is used to simulate rainfall potential productivity of maize in dryland farming areas of northern China,and analyse the temporal and spatial distribution of potential productivity.The results show that average potential productivity of maize in semi-humid area is about 11 000kg/ha,while in arid area is about 5 000kg/ha.As a whole,the rainfall potential productivity of maize is in the order of sub-humid area >semiarid area >arid area.Moreover,the inter-annual fluctuation of potential productivity in sub-humid area is also significant,and that of arid area is relatively stable.The potential productivity in eastern part of northern dryland area is higher than that in the western,but there is no significant difference from north to south in the northern dryland area.