| 广东农业旱灾的时间分布规律及重灾年份预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁红梅,刘会平,宋建阳,刘江龙.广东农业旱灾的时间分布规律及重灾年份预测[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(4):79-83. |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁红梅 刘会平 宋建阳 刘江龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州大学,地理科学学院,广东,广州,510405 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省自然科学基金;广东省广州市科技计划;广东省广州市教委科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 广东是华南农业旱灾较严重的省份，几乎年年都有发生，造成了巨大的经济损失。过去55a间，农业旱灾波动性加重发展，大致以10a为周期，轻重灾害期交替出现。在重灾期内，受灾率和成灾率都很高。广东农业旱灾的受灾率异常指数和成灾率异常指数变化较大，据此建立了农业旱灾灰色灾变预测模型。计算结果表明，今后20a将出现3个重灾年份，即2010-2011年，2015-2017年和2022—2024年期间，后两个年份极有可能发生特大旱灾。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业旱灾 异常指数 时间分布 灰色系统预测模型 广东省 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-4574（2006）04-0079-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-03 |
Temporal distribution and trend prediction of agricultural drought disaster in Guangdong Province |
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| LIANG Hong-mei,LIU Hui-ping,SONG Jian-yang,LIU Jiang-long.Temporal distribution and trend prediction of agricultural drought disaster in Guangdong Province[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(4):79-83. |
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| Authors: | LIANG Hong-mei LIU Hui-ping SONG Jian-yang LIU Jiang-long |
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| Institution: | Geographical Science School, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510405, China |
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| Abstract: | Drought is a main agricultural disaster in Guangdong Province. This disaster takes place almost every year and brings up great economical losses. Light and heavy agricultural droughts appear alternatively in a cycle of about 10 years. In the heavy disaster periods, affected area ratio and suffering area ratio are both very high. A grey system prediction model is established according to the changes of anomaly indices of drought-affected area ratio and drought-suffering area ratio. The model reveals that there will be three great drought years in coming 20 years, i. e. the periods 2010 -2011,2015 -2017 and 2022 -2024. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural drought anomaly indices temporal distribution grey system prediction model Guangdong province |
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