Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints |
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| Institution: | 1. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, United Kingdom;2. Satake Centre for Grain Process Engineering, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, United Kingdom;1. Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, United Kingdom;2. Consultant to the International Rice Research Institute, 12 Barley Way, Marlow, Buckinghamshire, SL7 2UG, United Kingdom;1. School of Postgraduate Studies, International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;2. Department of Pharmacy, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, United Kingdom;3. School of Biomedical Sciences & Pharmacy, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, Australia;1. Institute of Crop Science, Department Fertilization and Soil Matter Dynamics, University Hohenheim (340i), Fruwirthstraße 20, D-70599, Stuttgart, Germany;2. Thünen Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture, Bundesallee 50, D-38116, Braunschweig, Germany;3. Institute of Landscape Biogeochemistry, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, D- 15374, Müncheberg, Germany;4. Institute of Agricultural and Nutritional Sciences, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Betty-Heimann-Straße 5, D-06120, Halle, Germany;5. Institute of Applied Plant Nutrition, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Carl-Sprengel-Weg 1, D-37075, Göttingen, Germany;6. Institute of Crop Science and Plant Breeding, Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, Hermann-Rodewald-Str. 9, D-24118, Kiel, Germany;7. Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy (ATB Bornim), Max-Eyth-Allee 100, D-14469, Potsdam, Germany;8. Institute of Crop Science, Department Biobased Products and Energy Crops, University Hohenheim (340b), Fruwirthstraße 23, D-70599, Stuttgart, Germany;9. Faculty of Life Sciences, Humboldt University of Berlin, Hinter der Reinhardtstraße 8-18, D-10115, Berlin, Germany;10. Thünen Institute of Agricultural Technology, Bundesallee 50, D-38116, Braunschweig, Germany;1. Department of Agricultural Machinery Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran;2. Ionian Department of Law, Economics and Environment, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy;1. National Key Facility for Crop Gene Resources and Genetic Improvement, Institute of Crop Science, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;2. Collaborative Innovation Center of Crop Stress Biology & Institute of Plant Stress Biology, School of Life Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China;3. AgriBio, Centre for AgriBioscience, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport, and Resources, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC 3083, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions. |
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| Keywords: | Wheat production Supply–demand trends Climate change impacts Adaptation Mitigation Life cycle assessment Emissions |
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