中国未来的粮食安全与生态可持续性问题研究——基于粮食生产过程生态足迹的实证分析

自然资源与农业生态可持续开发是保障农业生产与粮食安全可持续发展的基础。随着我国人口的增长以及人们生活水平的提高，粮食需求量逐年增加。这不但加剧了我国人多地少的矛盾，还给我国农业资源与生态的可持续发展带来了挑战。利用计量模型测算出我国人口高峰时粮食安全背景下粮食生产活动的生态足迹，然后依据生态足迹指数法判断其生态可持续性状况。结果显示，按照目前的粮食生产模式依靠自给实现粮食安全，我国人均生态足迹指数将出现负值。这意味着我国农业生态将处于不可持续的状态。解决我国“粮食 耕地”矛盾与“粮食 生态”矛盾，实现粮食安全与农业生态的协调可持续发展，一方面需要把我国目前依靠要素投入的粗放式粮食生产模式转向生态友好型的种植模式；另一方面需要改变我国依靠自给的粮食安全保障模式，通过适当降低我国的粮食自给率、增加粮食进口缓解我国农业资源与生态环境的压力。这对我国未来的农业发展道路以及粮食安全政策都具有重要的参考价值

FOOD SECURITY AND ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY IN CHINA-AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT OF FOOD PRODUCTION

The sustainable development of agricultural production and food security is based on the sustainable use of natural resources and ecological environment systemThe demand for food increases year by year with the population growth and the improvement of living standard of the people in China in the past decades It not only has made the contradicton between huge population and relatively limited plowland resources， but also has brought challenges to the sustainable development and utilization of agricultural resources and ecological system in China Based on literature study，firstly，we confirmed the quantity of food demand at the population peak in China Secondly，we established the linear regression model between food output and the input factors by taking the use of annual data of food output and the quantity of the input factors （such as land，fertilizer and so on） between 1991 and 2010 Thirdly，we figured out the quantity of the input factors，and converted the inputs into the quantity of cultivated land area and forestry area Then，we calculated the ecological footprint of the food production activity by using of econometric model in the case of peak population and under the background of food security in China We assessed the sustainable level of the activity based on the theory of ecological footprint index Unfortunately，the analysis result showed that the ecological footprint per capita was 140 hm2 and much higher than the biocapacity per capita （087 hm2）in China And the ecological footprint index per capita in JP2]China was negative value （-609%） It means that the agricultural ecological system was in unsustainable state JP]Therefore，our food security also could not be guaranteed sustainable by self sufficiency In order to remit the contradiction of the quantity between food and plowland area and the contradiction between food output and agricultural ecological sustainable development，and to maintain the goals of food security and ecological sustainable development in China， we need to change the agricultural production mode from mainly boosted by the extensive input of production factors to more eco friendly mode，such as ecological agriculture Besides we should change the way for guaranteeing food security to relieve the pressure on resources and ecological environment by reducing food self sufficiency rate In practice，one side，we could import more food from international food market since China owns huge foreign exchange reserve On the other side，we could increase the quantity of global food production by extending cooperation with the countries rich in land resources such as South American countries and African countries The agricultural cooperation between China and these countries could benefit both sides by improving the utilization efficiency of land resources since China has more advanced agricultural technology and knowledge This study has important reference value for our government to select the right way of agricultural development and to select a food security policy which is more in line with Chinas national condition.