基于Weibull分布的测控装备寿命预测方法研究

目的利用寿命预测技术定期对测控装备的状态进行评估,挖掘装备潜在使用价值,降低出现故障的风险,为装备的更新维护提供参考依据。方法分析测控装备的特点,针对性地选用基于数据驱动的寿命预测技术,并重点分析基于Weibull分布的测控装备的寿命预测方法。结果通过数学公式推导,给出了采用最大似然估计法对二参数Weibull分布进行参数估计时的求解方法。结论对测控装备的寿命预测和可靠性评估提供科学的参考依据。

Life Prediction Method of TT&C Equipment Based on Weibull Distribution

The paper aims to periodically evaluate the state of TT&C equipment through the service life prediction technology to tap the potential use value of the equipment, reduce the risk of failure, and provide reference for the equipment update and maintenance. The characteristics of the TT&C equipment were analyzed, and the data-driven life prediction technology was selected. The life prediction method of TT&C equipment based on Weibull distribution was analyzed. Through the mathematical formula derivation, the solution method for estimating the parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution by the maximum likelihood estimation method was given. It provides a scientific reference for life prediction and reliability assessment of TT&C equipment.