我国水源污染事故风险点定量识别方法

水源事故的频发会对城市供水系统产生威胁，有必要针对供水系统风险进行评估和防控。针对水源事故频发及高发因素定量甄别研究，筛选统计了国内近20年来1 900多起水质突发事故案例，梳理了触发水源水质污染的多种因素，通过构建水源水质安全事故树和贝叶斯网络进行了相互验证分析。结果表明：我国水源污染事故主要因素贡献为依次突然排放(0.466)、污染长期累积(0.242)、交通事故(0.109)等；采用贝叶斯网络计算进行验证，其结果与事故树方法一致性较好。该方法有助于水源污染防控工作中风险点甄别和排序，可为我国饮用水安全保障水平的提升提供支撑。

Quantitative identification of causation points for water source pollution accident in China

With the development of China’s economy in the past ten years, water accidents have occurred frequently, which is a certain degree of threat to the urban water supply system. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate, prevent and control the risks of the water supply system. According to the quantitative screening research on frequent and high-incidence factors of water source accidents, more than 1900 water quality accidents in the past 20 years have been screened in China, and various factors that triggered water quality pollution have been sorted out, and the mutual analysis was conducted through the construction of fault tree analysis and Bayes networks. The results reveal that the main factors contributing to water pollution accidents in China were sudden discharge (0.466), long-term accumulation of pollution (0.242), and traffic accidents (0.109). The Bayesian network method has been utilized for verification, and the results are in good agreement with the fault tree analysis. The methods are helpful for the identification and ordering of causation points in the prevention and control of water pollution, and can provide support for improving the level of drinking water safety in China.