基于对数正态分布的腐蚀损伤预测方法

目的针对铝合金结构展开腐蚀预测方法研究,为飞机铝合金结构腐蚀损伤经济修理提供支撑。方法采用基于对数正态分布的统计学方法,开展飞机铝合金结构服役环境下的腐蚀损伤分布规律研究,并在此基础上进一步开展基于概率的腐蚀损伤预测方法。结果使用对数正态分布对腐蚀损伤分布进行描述是可行的,基于对数正态分布的概率腐蚀损伤预测方法在不同可靠度下精度有所差异。结论基于对数正态分布所建的腐蚀损伤预测模型可以实现对腐蚀损伤的预测。服役环境下,飞机铝合金结构腐蚀深度、体积及面积的扩展速率随时间的增长逐渐减缓。

Method for Prediction of Corrosion Damage Based on Log-normal Distribution

Objective To study a method for prediction of corrosion damage in aircraft aluminum alloy structure and provide support for the economic repair of the aircraft structure. Methods The statistical method based on log-normal distribution was applied to study the distribution rule of corrosion damage of aircraft aluminum alloy structure in service and build a probability-based prediction method for corrosion damage on this basis. Results The corrosion damage distribution can be described through log-normal distribution, and the probability prediction method based on log-normal distribution had different accuracy under different reliability. Conclusion The corrosion damage prediction method, which is based on log-normal distribution, could predict the corrosion damage. As time goes by, the propagation rates of corrosion depth, area and volume of aircraft aluminum alloy structure in service slow down.