深圳宝安区土地利用变化的环境影响研究

采用深圳宝安区1996-2004年的土地利用数据及其逐日降雨量资料，应用Costanza关于生态系统服务价值方面的研究成果，对该区域土地利用变化导致的生态服务价值进行了计算；应用SCS模型对该区主要污染物氨氮（NH4-N）、总磷（TP）以及高锰酸盐指数（CODMn）的面源污染负荷的变化进行了定量分析。结果表明：1996～2004年期间，土地利用变化导致区域总体生态服务功能下降了31．36%；氨氮和CODMn的面源污染负荷分别增加了4．12%、5．73%，总磷的面源污染负荷减少了1．64％。进一步对三种土地利用规划供选方案（2004-2020年）的环境影响进行了分析。在不同规划方案下，到2020年，宝安区总体生态服务功能将比2004年下降3．79％、10．97％和30．76％。但其下降速度都将得到明显遏止；氨氮、总磷和CODMn的面源污染负荷也将有较明显的增加，且皆以规划方案1增加最小,方案2居中，方案3增加最大。

Environmental Impact of Land Use Change of Baoan District in Shenzhen

The environmental impact of land use change at a middle-small scale includes non-pollution ecological impact and pollution environmental impact.The non-pollution ecological impact can be measured by the change in the ecosystem service value and the pollution environmental impact that results from land use change can be measured by the change in the non-point source pollution loading. This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the change of ecosystem service value and non-point pollutant loading based on the land use change data from remote sensing images and storm runoff in Baoan district,Shenzhen in 1996-2004.The results show that the ecosystem service value reduced by 31.36% from 1996 to 2004.The non-point pollutant loading of NH_4-N and COD_(Mn) increased by 4.12% and 5.73%,respectively.The non-point pollutant loading of TP(total phosphor) reduced by 1.64% in that period.Moreover,this paper also assesses the environmental impact of a land use plan(2005-2020),which is made according to the need of economic development and the environmental assessment results of the existing land use situation.Under these three scenarios,the ecosystem service value will reduce by 3.79%,10.97% and 30.76% from 2004 to 2020 and the non-point pollutant loading of NH_4-N,COD_(Mn) and TP will increase respectively.On the whole,the results show that the second scenario can meet the requirements of environmental protection and economic development at the same time.