Uncertainties in QRA: Analysis of losses of containment from piping and implications on risk prevention and mitigation |
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| Institution: | 1. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettronica, Chimica e Ingegneria Industriale, Università di Messina, Viale F.S. D''Alcontres 31, 98166, Messina, Italy;2. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale, Università di Padova, via F. Marzolo, 35131, Padova, Italy;1. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Industriale, Università di Pisa, Largo Lucio Lazzarino 1, 56126 Pisa, Italy;2. LISES—Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica, Ambientale e dei Materiali, Alma Mater Studiorum—Università di Bologna, via Terracini n.28, 40131 Bologna, Italy;3. Safety and Security Science Group, Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands;4. Faculty of Economics and Organizational Sciences, Campus Brussels, KU Leuven, Warmoesberg 26, 1000 Brussels, Belgium;1. University of Stavanger, Norway;2. University of Jyväskylä and Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), Finland;1. Department of Electronic Engineering, Industrial Chemistry and, University of Messina, Viale F.S. D’Alcontres 31, 98166, Messina, Italy;2. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Messina, Viale F.S. D’Alcontres 31, 98166 Messina, Italy;3. Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, via F. Marzolo, 35131 Padova, Italy;1. Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, P.O. Box 12200, FI-00076 AALTO, Finland;2. KU Leuven, Campus Brussels, Faculty of Economics and Organizational Sciences, Center for Economics and Corporate Sustainability, Warmoesberg 26, 1000 Brussels, Belgium;3. UAntwerpen, City Campus, Faculty of Applied Economic Sciences, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium;4. TU Delft, Safety and Security Science Group, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is commonly used in the chemical industry to support decision-making. Common practices are based on standard methods, such as fault tree, event tree, etc.; in this frame, risk is a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences (negative outcomes), but relevant uncertainties often are not properly taken into account in the derived results. This paper presents the application of an extended risk analysis of loss of containments for a case-study with the following aims: firstly, the uncertainties related to the results of the analysis, which derive from assumption in the application of the standard models, are qualitatively assessed; secondly the application allows evaluating the impact of the uncertainties on the trustworthiness of the results and, finally, commenting about their use in the risk prevention and mitigation. |
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| Keywords: | Quantitative Risk Assessment Chemical release Loss of containment Uncertainty Risk management |
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