Method to analyze the regional life loss risk by airborne chemicals released after devastating earthquakes: A simulation approach |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;3. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;4. Environmental Protection Bureau of Linfen Municipality, Linfen 041000, Shanxi, China;5. Environmental Protection Bureau of Yulin Municipality, Yulin 719000, Shaanxi, China;1. College of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, SDUST, Qingdao, Shandong 266590, China;2. School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832003, China;3. Collaborative Innovation Center for Marine Biomass Fibers, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China;1. University of Newcastle, UK;2. University of Warwick, UK;1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;4. Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, CH-8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland;1. Institute of Continuum Mechanics, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Appelstraße 11, 30167 Hannover, Germany;2. Material-Technology Innsbruck (MTI), University of Innsbruck, Technikerstraße 13, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria;3. Ingenieurbüro Dr. Binnewies Ingenieurgesellschaft mbH, Dammtorstraße 25, 20354 Hamburg, Germany;4. Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Siping Road 1239, 200092 Shanghai, PR China;5. Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Siping Road 1239, 200092 Shanghai, PR China;1. State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China;2. School of Occupational and Public Health, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada |
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| Abstract: | Widespread chemical plants render human life more vulnerable to major natural disasters such as earthquakes. Recognizing the potential cascading threats initiated by a devastating earthquake, a general methodology for assessing the life loss risks introduced by airborne hazardous chemical dispersion following seismically induced chemical release (SICR) was proposed. With a 600 km × 600 km region in North China as a demonstrative study area, the dispersion of ammonia released from multiple relevant chemical plants that were supposed to be damaged by a devastating earthquake was simulated in a probabilistic manner. Using an ammonia toxicity-fatality relationship and its toxicity concentration threshold, regional life loss and spatial spread were evaluated. The life loss risk was found to be non-prominent but would be very contingent on unfavorable meteorological conditions. Non-parametric correlation analysis revealed that the respective effects of meteorological mixing parameters on the risk exhibit new features in a disaster context, that is, stronger mixing would cause elevation of risk in a region. This preliminary research implied that the risk of chemical-induced life loss after a devastating earthquake deserves attention and a thorough uncertainty evaluation in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Airborne dispersion Ammonia Disaster chain Earthquake Risk Na-Tech |
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