不确定性水质模型及其研究进展

水环境是一个充满不确定性因素的复杂巨系统,研究这些不确定性的变化有利于提高人们对水环境分析的认识和做出更切合实际的决策.详细、清晰地评述了不确定性水质模型研究的必要性、研究的方法和国内外研究进展等,并针对此类模型研究与应用过程中普遍存在的一些问题、主要表现和成因进行了分析与论述,最后结合目前的研究热点指出了今后不确定性水质模型发展的3个重要方向.

Status and trend in uncertainty modeling of water quality

The aquatic environment is a complicated system affected by many uncertain factors. Uncertain water quality models are useful tools for making wise environmental decisions on water quality standards and discharge limits. The paper presented a comprehensive literature review on fundamentals, approaches and methodologies of the existing uncertain water quality models including analysis/discussion of many problems and difficulties involved in the research and application of such models. The paper also forecasted the trend of future research in uncertainty modeling and lists three important directions covering the current hot topics.