区域水资源可持续利用评价的FAHP-PP模型

正确评价区域水资源可持续利用，对区域社会、经济的可持续发展以及生态环境的良性循环都具有重要意义，而区域水资源可持续利用指标体系及评价方法研究是水资源可持续利用研究的基础。借鉴现有评价指标体系的优点，并充分考虑现有评价指标体系所忽略的某些环境因素对水资源可持续利用的影响，针对区域社会-经济-环境复合系统的特点，提出了由区域水资源条件、水资源开发利用程度、区域水资源与社会协调程度、区域水资源与环境协调程度4个子系统及评价指标组成的区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系。根据水资源系统的随机性、模糊性等特性以及系统评价的公正、客观要求，为规避评价方法的主观性与客观性影响，分别应用主观性较强的模糊层次分析法（FAHP）与客观性较强的投影寻踪模型（PP）对区域水资源可持续利用水平进行评价，并将两种方法的评价结果进行加权求和以实现优势互补，以此建立了区域水资源评价的一种新模型（FAHP PP），然后通过以上海市1998～2007年水资源可持续利用情况为例对该评价指标体系的合理性及方法的有效性进行了说明.

EVALUATION OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM BASED ON FAHP PP MODEL

To evaluate correctly the sustainable utilization of regional water resource system is important for the development of district society,economy and virtuous circle of ecology environment.Evaluation index system and assessment methods are the research foundation of the sustainable utilization of water resource system.Fully considering some environmental factors that are negligible by existing evaluating index systems,using existing evaluating index systems for reference,and based on area social economic environmental complex system characteristics,the sustainability evaluation index of regional water resources system includes the following four subsystems and indices,such as,the condition of regional water resource,development and utilization level of water resource,and its coordination degree with society and environment,were put forward.Furthermore,according to characteristics of randomness,fuzziness of water resource system and objective and fair demand of system evaluation,in order to avoid the limitation of either too objective or too subjective of single evaluation model,the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP)which has strong subjectivity and Projection Pursuit methods(PP)which has strong objectivity were applied respectively to assess the sustainability of water resource system.The results of two methods were summed by weights to realize complementary advantages of FAHP and PP,so this article developed a suitable termed as FAHP PP(Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process,Projection Pursuit).In order to verify the rationality of the evaluation index system proposed by the paper and the effectiveness of the FAHP PP model,the sustainability of water resource system of Shanghai from 1998 to 2007 was evaluated by means of FAHP PP.The result shows that the evaluation index system is comprehensive,objective,systematical and available and FAHP PP method is simple,operative. Furthermore,the trend of sustainable utilization of water resources of Shanghai from 1998 to 2007 obtained by using FAHP PP is more pertinent with the actual situation than those obtained by single use of FAHP or PP.