港口物流发展与城市经济增长关系的实证研究——以大连市为例

港口物流发展与经济增长之间存在着密切关系。运用1992--2010年大连市港口吞吐量和C-DP的数据，通过协整分析和Granger因果关系检验法，从实证角度研究了大连市港口物流发展与经济增长之间的动态相关性和因果关系。结果显示，大连市港口物流发展与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，但短期存在失衡关系，短期失衡向长期均衡回归的速度达1．7832；长期内港口物流发展对经济增长的弹性为0．3122，短期则为0．054；港口物流发展与经济增长之间存在单向因果关系，即港口物流发展是促进经济增长的Granger成因，反之则不成立。

Empirical Research on Relationship between Port Logistics Development and Economic Growth -- A Case Study of Dalian City

There was a close relationship between port logistics development and economic growth. This paper using the harbor cargo volume of goods handled data and the GDP data of Dalian from 1992 to 2010, researched dynamic relativity and causality between port logistics development and economy growth from positive view, by co - integration analysis and Granger causality test. Positive analysis result indicated there was stable equilibri- um relationship between port logistics development and economic growth in long- term, but not in short - term. The error correction model could con- nect the long- term co - integration and short term variation,the adjusting coefficient of error correction term was 1.7832 which meant that the veloc- ity of short term variation approaching the long - term equilibrium was 1. 7832. The long - term co - integration equation revealed that the economy growth elasticity of port logistics development was 0. 3122, while the short- term error correction equation revealing the economy growth elasticity of port logistics development was 0. 054. The Granger test result revealed that port logistics development could cause economy growth, but economy growth was not the causation of port logistics development.