The effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality: Theory and empirical evidence |
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| Institution: | 1. Connecticut College, United States;2. University of California at Davis, United States;3. Occidental College, United States;1. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China;2. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China;1. MOE Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA;3. Institute of Urban Transport Planning, China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Beijing 100037, China;4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-4110, USA;5. Operations Section, Hangzhou MTR Corporation Limited, Hangzhou 310000, China;1. Department of Economics, Williams College, Schapiro Hall, 24 Hopkins Hall Dr., Williamstown, MA 01267, United States;2. CERTeT, Università Bocconi and Duke University, Duke Box 90239, Durham, NC 27708, United States;1. Faculty of Law, Ningbo University, China;2. Faculty of Electrical and Computer Science, Ningbo University, China;1. Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 55 Guanghua Cun Street, Chengdu 610074, PR China;2. Institute for Economic and Social Research, Jinan University, 601 Huangpu West Avenue, Guangzhou 510632, PR China |
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| Abstract: | A typical driving restriction prohibits drivers from using their vehicles on given weekdays, based on the last digits of their vehicles’ license plates. A number of cities in developing countries have used license plate-based driving restrictions as a policy for reducing urban air pollution and traffic congestion. This paper develops a theoretical model of the effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality that combines an economic model with information about the sources and atmospheric chemistry of different air pollutants. We then draw upon suggestive empirical evidence from license plate-based driving restrictions implemented in Bogotá, Colombia. Consistent with our theory model, we find suggestive empirical evidence that under certain circumstances, due to substitution, the purchase of a second car, the use of alternative modes of transportation, and/or atmospheric chemistry, it is possible for license plate-based driving restrictions to increase air pollution. Also consistent with our theory, we find that license plate-based driving restrictions may have different effects on different air pollutants, reflecting heterogeneity in the sources and atmospheric chemistry of the pollutants. In particular, owing to atmospheric chemistry, it is possible for a license plate-based driving restriction to cause a significant decrease in NO and a significant increase in NO2, NOx, and O3. |
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| Keywords: | Driving restriction Air quality |
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