Evaluation of the Fire Simulation Processes of the National Fire Management System's Initial Attack Analysis Processor |
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Authors: | DIMITRAKOPOULOS A P OMI P N |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Forestry & Natural Environment, Aristotle University, P.O. Box 228, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece, GR;(2) Department of Forest Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523, USA, US |
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Abstract: | The fire simulation processes of the National Fire Management System's (NFMAS) Initial Attack Analysis (IAA) processor were
evaluated by conducting two types of sensitivity analysis: one based on a hypothetical set of data to assess IAA's outputs
under a wide range of fire input values, and the other using an actual Stanislaus National Forest database to test IAA's validity
with a real set of data. The results revealed that IAA's outputs (projected annual number of fires and area burned) were most
sensitive, in descending order, to the input values of the fire spread rate, the productivity rates of the suppression forces,
and the initial attack time, for all fuel models tested. In contrast, IAA's outputs were extremely insensitive to variations
in the fire size at discovery. Changes are necessary in the ways IAA incorporates the fire size at discovery to facilitate
the comparison among various fire detection options. The program's “escaped fire situation” analysis was found inadequate,
because the projected annual frequencies and final sizes of the simulated escaped fire events produced unacceptable results
with the Stanislaus National Forest database. Assigning final sizes to simulated escaped fires according to the fire intensity
level in which they are historically expected to occur provides a consistent way of calculation of the projected annual area
burned and the consequent cost plus net value change (C + NVC). |
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Keywords: | : Forest fires: Fire management Fire simulation models Fire economics Strategic fire planning Wildland fire policy Sensitivity analysis |
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