| 贝叶斯方法在浮动式核电站事故风险因素分析中的适用性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 邹树梁,李书帆,孙美兰,凌鑫.贝叶斯方法在浮动式核电站事故风险因素分析中的适用性研究[J].工业安全与环保,2019,45(3):4-7,40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邹树梁 李书帆 孙美兰 凌鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | 南华大学环境与安全工程学院 湖南衡阳421001;核设施应急安全作业技术与装备湖南省重点实验室 湖南衡阳421001;核设施应急安全作业技术与装备湖南省重点实验室 湖南衡阳421001 |
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| 基金项目： | 国防科技工业核动力技术创新中心科研项目;南华大学研究生创新科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为探讨贝叶斯方法在浮动式核电站事故风险分析中的适用性,通过相关调研、文献资料、数据统计等,总结浮动式核电站事故风险因素分析的特点,即有限的空间布置,搭载平台与环境的特殊性,多态、动态与不确定性。结合以上分析,提出静态、动态、结合FMEA及灰色状态下的4种贝叶斯方法。得出贝叶斯方法在浮动式核电站风险因素分析过程中更加直观且具有连续性,既适用于定性分析也适用于定量分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯 浮动式核电站 特点 风险分析 |
Research on Applicability of Bayesian Method in Analysis of Accident Risk Factors of Floating Nuclear Power Plants |
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| ZOU Shuliang,LI Shufan,SUN Meilan,LING Xin.Research on Applicability of Bayesian Method in Analysis of Accident Risk Factors of Floating Nuclear Power Plants[J].Industrial Safety and Dust Control,2019,45(3):4-7,40. |
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| Authors: | ZOU Shuliang LI Shufan SUN Meilan LING Xin |
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| Institution: | (School of Environment and Safety Engineering,University of South ChinaHengyang,Hunan 421001) |
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| Abstract: | In order to explore the applicability of Bayesian method in accident risk analysis of FNPP,the characteristics of risk factors analysis of accidents in FNPP,such as limited space arrangement,particularity of carrying platform and environment,multi-state dynamics and uncertainty,are summarized through relevant investigations,literature and data statistics.Based on the applicability of Bayesian network and the analysis characteristics of risk factors of FNPP,four Bayesian methods are proposed,which are static,dynamic,FMEA and Grey state.The analysis shows that Bayesian method is more intuitive and continuous in the process of risk factor analysis of FNPP,which is suitable for both qualitative and quantitative analysis. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian FNPP characteristics risk analysis |
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