森林碳汇与经济增长的长期均衡及短期动态关系研究——基于中国1998—2010年省级面板数据

森林是重要的陆地生态系统,森林碳汇与经济增长的长期均衡及短期动态关系的研究,有利于探求森林生态系统平衡发展及经济可持续增长的有效路径。测度中国30 个省份1998—2010 年的森林碳汇,采取面板数据的单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型的因果关系检验、脉冲响应等计量技术,考察并预测森林碳汇与经济增长间的动态关系。实证结果表明:森林碳汇与经济增长之间存在协整关系,并存在短期修正效应,当经济可持续增长偏离长期均衡时,将以19%的力度调整至均衡状态,且Granger 因果关系检验及VAR面板模型结果验证了森林碳汇与经济增长的正的双向互动关系;脉冲响应函数显示,经济增长对森林碳汇发展的稳健性产生微弱的正向冲击,而森林碳汇发展在短期对经济增长的稳定性产生显著的正向生态冲击。据此,提出了加大财政对碳汇森林的政策扶持、树种与造林模式相结合、建立并完善碳汇计量与监测机制、完善投融资渠道、加强森林管理等促进我国森林生态系统持续发展的对策建议。

Research on the Long-term and Short-term Dynamic Relationship Between Carbon Forestry Development and Economic Growth—Based on the Provincial Panel Data of China in 1998－2010

Forests are important terrestrial ecosystems, researching on the long-term and short-term dynamic relationship between carbon forestry and economic growth is an effective way to promote the balance of forest ecosystem and sustainable economic growth. This study measures forestry carbon of China's 30 provinces in 1998-2010 (not including Chongqing, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan due to no data), and adopts the panel data unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model of causality test, and impulse response measurement technology to inspect and forecast the dynamic relationship between the ecological contribution of forestry carbon and the economic growth. The empirical results show that there exists a cointegration relationship between the forestry carbon and economic growth, and a short-term correction effect as well. When economic growth deviates from the long-term equilibrium, adjustment will be made to an equilibrium state with 19% of power, and Granger causality test and VAR panel model results verify the interactive relation. Impulse response function displays economic growth produces weak positive impact on the stability of carbon forestry development, and carbon forestry development produces positive significant ecological impact on the stability of economic growth in the short term. According to the above analysis, countermeasures and suggestions were proposed for increasing financial policy support, tree species and forestation pattern combination, establishing and improving the carbon measurement and monitoring mechanism, perfecting investment and financing channels, strengthening forest management, etc, so as to promote China's forest ecosystem sustainable economic development.