碳交易市场发展现状与未来走势分析

自《京都议定书》生效以来，国际碳市场取得了长足的发展，并在推动各国低碳转型方面发挥了积极作用。由于受国际气候制度演变带来的政策不确定性影响，以及欧洲主权债务危机的冲击，当前国际碳市场的发展陷入停滞。未来国际碳市场将何去何从？本文立足主要国家国内碳市场发展、国际气候谈判进程以及德班气候变化会议成果，对国际碳市场的未来发展走势进行了系统分析，提出2012年后的国际碳市场将由联合国气候公约缔约方会议相关决定和议定书第二承诺期两个框架同时驱动，同时还将在很大程度上受到主要国家国内政策取向的影响。本文同时还介绍了中国国内碳交易市场的建设进展及其面·临的主要挑战，最后针对环境保护部门在国内碳市场建设中可发挥的作用提出了相应的建议。

Analysis on the Current Status of the International Carbon Market and Its Trend of Future Development

Since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, the international carbon market has been developed a lot and plays a significant role in promoting the transition to a low carbon development model in various countries. However, due to policy uncertainties caused by the current negotiation for the future international climate regime, and also inflicted by the European sovereign debt, the international carbon market is stalled. Where will the international market head into？ This article makes a systematic analysis on the trend of future development of the international carbon, based the development of domestic carbon markets in various major countries, the international climate negotiation process and the outcome achieved at the Durban climate conference. It seems that the post 2012 international carbon market will be driven both by a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and the new market mechanisms to be defined by the UNFCCC COP decisions and domestic policies of major players will also play a more important role. The article also introduces the latest development of the Chinese domestic carbon market, and the challenges it faces. And lastly, it provides some recommendations to the environmental protection authorities on what kind of role it can play in the promotion of China＇s domestic carbon market.