Spatial assessment of climate change effects on crop suitability for major plantation crops in Sri Lanka |
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Authors: | P M S Jayathilaka Peeyush Soni Sylvain R Perret H P W Jayasuriya Vilas M Salokhe |
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Institution: | (1) Department of National Planning, Ministry of Finance and Planning, Colombo, Sri Lanka;(2) Agricultural Systems and Engineering, School of Environment Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand;(3) UMR G-Eau, CIRAD; Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand;(4) Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman;(5) Kaziranga University, Jorhat, Assam, India; |
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Abstract: | Climate change is the main global challenge of this century; it is therefore imperative to identify its effects on agriculture
in developing countries. This research makes spatial assessment of climate change effect on major plantation crops in Sri
Lanka, with emphasis on crop suitability of tea, rubber, and coconut. Geo-referenced maps of spatial and temporal changes
in crop suitability and production potentials are generated and compared. Data pertaining to six agro-ecological zones under
the study area are analyzed for a period of 1980–2007. Crop suitability maps are generated amalgamating yield maps and climatic
factors maps using AHP in multi-criteria analysis under two time frames of 1980–1992 and 1993–2007. Percent change in crop
suitability and crop yield classes is calculated based on five crop suitability and five crop yield classes during two time
frames. Dynamics of climatic parameters and crop yield are recognized using geo-referenced maps. The suitability maps of the
two time frames are compared to identify the changes with each crop in conjunction with changes in the prevailing climate
and yield. Geographic shift of suitability, yield, and climate classes are examined. Net gain or loss in crop production is
quantified. Long-term annual rainfall significantly decreased in mid-country wet zone, whereas the mean temperature of the
study area increased by 1.4°C. Results clearly showed that the climate and yield can be meaningfully related to the crop suitability
and management. |
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