民航机务维修安全管理水平未确知测度分析

为了准确判断机务维修安全管理状况,从维修人员、机械设备、环境和管理4个方面分析和探讨机务维修安全管理影响因素。基于国内外民航机务维修日常安全管理现状,采用系统工程和安全科学理论,结合现场调研结果,提出机务维修安全管理水平指标体系,并确定指标体系中的安全管理水平分级标准。针对民航维修安全管理具有不确定性和复杂性的特点,运用未确知测度理论建立机务维修安全管理水平分析模型。应用该模型计算某维修单位安全管理测度向量值,利用置信度准则判定其安全等级。结果表明,应用该模型所得分析结果与航空公司机务维修实际安全管理水平相符,该单位今后应重点加强维修人员引进、新机型培训和老龄飞机维护等管理工作。

Study on Maintenance Safety Management Level of Civil Aviation Based on Unascertained Measure Theory

In order to judge accurately status of maintenance safety management in civil aviation,influence factors on maintenance safety management were studied in four fields,which include maintenance personnel,equipments,environment and management.According to system engineering and safety sciences theory,an index system of maintenance safety management level was put forward based on domestic and abroad safety management status of civil aviation maintenance,and results of spot investigetion.Criteria for classifying the management levels were established.In considered of indefinite and complex features of maintenance safety management in civil aviation,a model for analysing the maintenace safety management was built on the basis of unascertained measure.The paper can get vector-valued of maintenance enterprise safety management by model and judge objective exactly safety level with confidence criteria.The result shows that the model was validated using the data on a certain airplane maintenace enterprise in China.