山东省环境库兹涅茨曲线的检验与分析

环境库兹涅茨曲线假设反映的是经济增长与环境质量之间呈现倒U型的曲线关系.在对二次函数、三次函数以及对数函数等3种模型比较分析的基础上，考察了山东省的环境库兹涅茨曲线假设.结果表明:二氧化硫排放量和烟尘排放量比较符合倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线,转折点分别为人均GDP 5 029和1 881元，发生的年代分别为1994—1995年和1990—1991年；工业废水排放量和工业固体废物产生量仍处于上升阶段，曲线的转折点还未达到.政策分析表明，建立官员环境保护考核机制，不仅与环境保护投资的增加存在时间上的一致性，而且在污染物排放防治上起到了明显的作用. 

Test and Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Shandong Province

Based on the comparative analysis of three models, which included quadratic function, cubic function and Log function, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis of Shandong Province was examined. It was found that SO₂ and dust emission accorded with the EKC hypothesis, the turning points were 5 029 and 1881 Yuan per capita respectively, and the turning time were 1994-1995 and 1990-1991 respectively. However, the industrial wastewater emission and solid waste production were still at the rising stage and did not get to the turning points. Finally, the correlation analysis between environmental policy and pollutants emission showed that the merit system establishing on environmental quality for the government officer has greatly increased the environmental protection investment and decreased the pollutants emission.