基于随机Petri网的平交道口建模及事故率分析

基于公路道口使用者的违规进入及违规人数比例是道口发生事故的主要原因为背景,分析道口使用者违规进入道口前的平均等待时间及违规比例,列车在各个区段的时间特性与道口事故率之间的定量关系。采用随机Petri网基于道口公路使用者、道口铁路列车的经过道口过程、道口安全防护系统功能及三者之间的相关性进行建模及事故率分析。根据模型的仿真表明:当列车由道口传感器区进入接近区的时间和由接近区进入道口的时间由随机值变为固定值时,道口事故率大大降低;公路使用者在违规进入道口前,等待某个时间后进入道口发生事故的风险最大。当列车由接近区进入道口的时间为随机值时,公路使用者的违规比例增加会明显加大事故率。

Modeling and Accident Rates Analysis of Level Crossing Based on Petri Nets

Based on the fact that the main causes of the accidents in the level crossing are the violating action into the level crossing and the proportion of the road users,the relationship between the average waiting time of road users before entering into the level crossing,average violating proportion,the property of the operation period of the train on the different sections and the accident rates are analyzed. The level crossing is modeled and the accident rates are analyzed based on Petri nets. The modeling process is based on the dynamic processes of level crossing road users and railway trains,the level crossing control system and the interconnection between them. The simulation results show that if the time of the train from sensor section into approaching section and the time of the train from approaching section into the crossing section are changed from random to fixed,the accident rates will be decreased greatly; The accident risk is the greatest if the violating road users enter the level crossing after waiting some time. If the period of train from approaching section into the crossing is random,the increasing of violation proportion of the road users will increase the accident rates greatly.