水资源冲突分析研究进展

流域水资源配置冲突一般通过各方协商解决，“冲突分析”是一种解决这类问题的决策方法。该方法考虑冲突局中人的策略与偏好，根据局中人的实力、态度和目标排列偏好的优先顺序，通过分析局中人的可达局势与可行移动集来判断冲突局势的稳定性，寻求冲突的均衡解。回顾了冲突分析方法从标准的博弈分析发展到F H分析方法的演进历程，阐述了冲突分析数学模型的基本概念与要素，论述了冲突分析方法的发展、应用和模型化的进程，概括了国内冲突分析方法的研究现状。鉴于F H方法具有协商水资源冲突问题、协调各方利益的决策功能，提出继续完善其现状分析功能，强化局中人的理性意识，运用“冲突-协同”观点分析冲突事件。〖

ADVANCE OF WATER RESOURCES CONFLICT ANALYSIS

Water resources conflicts are generally resolved through negotiation,while conflict analysis is one of useful methods from the viewpoint of strategy.In conflict analysis,players' alternatives and preferences are taken into consideration,and preference vectors are arranged by the strength,altitude and objective of players.Then,equilibrium can be obtained after stability analysis of reachable states.In this paper,the evo- lution of conflict analysis,from normal game theory to F-H analysis,was introduced,with basic concepts and main factors of the mathematical model described.Besides,the development,application and modeling of conflict analysis all over the world were generalized and the research advancement of the method in Chi- na was also concluded.Due to its function in the field of decision making on water resources,it is suggested that analysis module should be improved and the players' rationality should be put on more emphasis.Mo- reover,it was proposed that a combination view of conflict-cooperation will be accepted by decision-makers during conflict resolution with F-H analysis.