呼伦贝尔森林-草原交错区景观格局动态分析及预测

在Arc/Info和ERDAS等软件的支持下，以1995，2000和2005年三期呼伦贝尔地区的遥感影像和地形图为基础数据，解译提取了森林-草原交错区景观格局空间分布信息，并运用景观生态学原理和方法，选取景观斑块分维数、分离度和景观优势度等指标，分析了该区1995—2005年的景观格局动态变化. 同时，利用马尔柯夫链模型对该区景观格局变化进行了预测. 结果表明:在以人类活动为主的一系列外界环境因素的影响下，预计到2020年，草地和林地面积减少最多，其中草地面积所占比例将由1995年的41.200%下降到32.529%，主要转变成为耕地和未利用土地，耕地和未利用土地占交错区总面积比例将分别达到7.573%和6.132%. 

Analysis and Prediction of Landscape Pattern Changes in Hulunbeir Forest-Steppe Ecotone Using Markov Model

The spatial information of landscape pattern of ecotone between forestand grass in Hulunbeier from three periods of 1995, 2000 and 2005 is explained and extracted based on the Arc/Info and ERDAS software. The basic theory and method of landscape ecology were applied, taking fractal dimension, isolation and dominance as indexes to analyze the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of the landscape pattern. Also, the Markov Chain model was used to predict the changes of landscape pattern in future. The results shows as follows: by 2020, under the influence of a series of environment factors, primarily human activities, the area of grassland landscape and forest land would reduces the most. The proportion of grassland in the entire area would decrease from 41.200% in 1995 to 32.529%, andthe reduced area was mainly transformed to cultivated land and unused land. By then, the cultivated land and unused land may respectively amount to 7.573% and6.132% in total area of the ecotone.