甘肃省资源环境承载力监测预警

在综合考虑国家不同部门出台的政策基础上,构建了甘肃省资源环境承载力监测预警指标体系,采用基于AHP—熵权法的综合赋权法确定权重,并借鉴已有成果对各项指标的警限阈值进行了讨论确定;使用综合指数模型对甘肃省2006-2016年及各县级行政区资源环境承载力进行了分析研究。结果表明：（1）2006-2016年甘肃省资源环境承载力水平介于0.32~0.46之间,虽总体呈现增加趋势,但均处于超载预警状态。在空间上呈现出河西地区承载能力高,南部和东南部地区次之、中部地区承载力较差的格局。（2）十年间甘肃省资源承载力水平呈平稳上升态势,其中水资源承载力与能矿承载力处于较差水平;当前临夏市、天水市和平凉市处于橙色超载状态。（3）十年间甘肃省环境承载力水平呈“W”型曲线波动且超载严重,具有南部地区和兰州环境承载能力较好于河西和东部地区的空间差异。研究表明甘肃省资源环境超载严重,虽然自“十二五”以来生态文明建设成效显著,但缓解这一压力非短期之功,仍需进行不懈的努力。

Dynamic monitoring and early warning of resources and environment carrying capacity in Gansu,China

The monitoring and early warning index system of RECC in Gansu province was constructed by comprehensively considering the policies issued by different departments of the state. The weights were determined by the comprehensive weighting method based on AHP-entropy weight method, and the warning threshold of each index was discussed and determined by referring to the existing achievements. On the basis of the above methods, the comprehensive index model was used to analyze the carrying capacity of resources and environment in Gansu province and the county administrative units from 2006 to 2016. The results show that: (1) The level of resources and environment carrying capacity of Gansu province in 2006-2016 was between 0.32-0.46, which was in the state of overload warning despite of the overall increasing trend. Spatially, the bearing capacity of Hexi region was high, followed by the southern and southeastern regions, while the central region showed a poor carrying capacity. Moreover, the carrying capacity of resources and environment in ethnic minority areas was lower than that in the core towns; (2) From 2006 to 2016, the resources carrying capacity of Gansu increased steadily, in which the carrying capacity of water resources and energy mines is at a relatively poor level. The carrying capacity in Linxia and Tianshui was in an orange overload state; (3) The level of environment carrying capacity in Gansu fluctuated greatly from 2006 to 2016, showing a "W"-shaped curve, and the environment carrying capacity was seriously overloaded. Spatially, the southern region and Lanzhou had better environment carrying capacity, while the carrying capacity in Hexi and eastern region was lower. The results show the serious resources and environment overload in Gansu province. Although great progress has been made in the ecological civilization construction since the 12^th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), it is still long-term task to ease the pressure and make continuous efforts.