安宁河流域土地生态安全动态评价与预测

基于GIS空间分析技术结合CA Markov预测模型，对安宁河流域2000—2018年的土地生态安全进行动态评价及预测。结果表明：安宁河流域土地生态安全指数由北向南递增，垂直差异显著；研究期内预警和风险总占比由27.72%下降至23.84%，良好和安全面积总占比由46.11%上升至51.49%；2000—2018年安宁河流域土地生态安全综合指数呈上升趋势，土地生态发展态势良好；预测结果显示，流域土地生态安全状况将持续好转。安宁河流域土地生态安全虽然总体水平有较大提高，但仍须加强对生态环境的治理力度，推进土地生态安全的可持续发展。

Dynamic Evaluation and Prediction of Land Ecological Security in Anning River Basin

Based on GIS spatial analysis and CA Markov prediction model, the land ecological security of Anning River Basin was dynamically evaluated and predicted from 2000 to 2018. The results showed that the land ecological security index of Anning River Basin increased from north to south, and the vertical difference was significant. During the study period, the total proportion of early warning and risk decreased from 27.72% to 23.84%, the total area proportion of good and safe land increased from 46.11% to 51.49%. From 2000 to 2018, the comprehensive index of land ecological security in Anning River Basin showed an upward trend, the land ecological development trend was good. The prediction results showed that the land ecological security in the basin would continue to improve. Although the overall level of land ecological security in Anning River Basin had been greatly improved, it was still necessary to strengthen the governance of ecological environment and promote the sustainable development of land ecological security.