灰色理论及其模型在北京典型城市区域声环境研究中的应用

以北京市某典型区域作为研究对象,在收集大量相关资料与实测历史噪声数据的基础上,对研究区域内的声环境质量影响因素进行灰色关联度分析,并运用灰色理论建立GM（1,1）模型进行预测。结果表明,影响城市区域声环境质量因素从大到小的排序依次为：机动车辆﹥常住人口数量﹥平均车流量﹥地区生产总值﹥城市道路桥梁﹥基础设施投资﹥治理噪声环保投资;以研究区域内噪声污染实测历史数据建立的GM（1,1）模型精度符合要求标准,根据GM（1,1）模型预测北京市“十二五”期间声环境质量达标且有轻微下降趋势。

Application of Grey Theory and Model on Acoustic Environment of Typical Urban Area in Beijing

In order to complete the objectives of "The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline" of the main noise pollution prevention and control in urban areas of Beijing,comprehensively improve the level of acoustic environmental quality in Beijing,and scientifically predict of noise pollution in the regional level and development trend in the " The Twelfth Five Year Guideline" period,based on collected data and measured historical noise data,this article focused on a typical region in Beijing to make grey Relational Analysis for some factors affecting the quality of the acoustic environment within the study area,and to predict by using the gray theory GM (1,1) model.The results showed that: the factors that of influence acoustic environmental quality were ranked as follows: motor vehicles > average traffic flow > GDP > urban roads and bridges > Population density > infrastructure investment > noise control and environmental protection investment; the accuracy of the GM (1,1) model established by the measured historical data of noise pollution within the study area meets the requirements.prediction based on the GM (1,1) model suggested the acoustic environment quality reaching the standards with declining trend during " The Twelfth Five Year Guideline " of Beijing.