天津市基于新标准的空气质量预报模型效果评估

利用2015年环境空气质量监测数据,对天津市OPAQ空气质量统计预报模型预测效果进行验证评估。结果表明,模型对天津市AQI和PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_3、NO——2的预测结果与实测结果具有较好的趋势一致性,且预测时间越临近,拟合度越好,24 h预报的相关系数r全部达到0.8以上。对PM_(2.5)的预报性能明显优于PM_(10)、O_3和NO_2,PM_(2.5)平均值预测略呈正偏差,但重污染预测值偏低约15%;O_3和NO_2预测值呈明显负偏差,O_3峰值预测不足,NO_2预测值整体偏低,均以24 h预报趋势性最好,但负偏差最为突出。

Effect Evaluation of Air Quality Forecast Model based on New Standard in Tianjin

Based on the comparison of environmental air quality monitoring data in 2015, the effect of OPAQ air quality statistical forecast model in Tianjin was evaluated .The results showed that the prediction of AQI and PM 2.5 , PM10 , O3 , NO2 concentrations were in good agreement with the monitoring data , and the correlation coefficient was higher with the prediction time nearer .The cor-relation coefficient r of 24-hour forecast all reached more than 0.8.The prediction performance of PM 2.5 was better than that of PM10 , O3 and NO2 , with a minor positive deviation than the average value , but the forecast value of heavy pollution was 15%lower. The predictions of O 3 and NO2 were significantly negatively deviated , with O3 peak value prediction underestimated and NO 2 predic-tion value low .The 24-hour forecast had the best tendency but the negative bias was the most prominent .