水上事故溢油运动轨迹与环境归宿预测模型的研究进展

以事故溢油在水面上的运动轨迹和环境归宿为研究对象,重点对溢油水下分散过程、岸边黏附及受水流冲刷下油膜质量衰减过程、水体悬浮物对石油黏附/吸附量的预测模型研究成果,以及目前日益受到关注的河流溢油模型的研究进展进行归纳总结。对比分析了不同预测模型结构功能差异和适用性问题,为不同环境条件下溢油事故的后预警、后预测提供模型选择依据和技术支持。最后就溢油模型尚存的一些问题及未来发展的方向进行了探讨。

A Review on Predictive Modeling for Accidental Oil Spilling Trajectory and Environmental Fate in Water

Targeting on accidental oil spilling trajectory and environmental fate, we focused primarily on vertical dispersion of oil spilling in water, land adhesion and re-floatation, adsorption/adhesion by suspended sediment, conducted a wide range of academic collection and discussion on oil spill trajectory and its fate in the environment. By comparing the model structure and functionality differences, also shed some light on the models selection and technical support for post-prediction under different case scenarios. Finally, some discussions about spill model deficiencies and the directions for future development were made.