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Pilot-study on GIS-based risk modelling of a climate warming induced tertian malaria outbreak in Lower Saxony (Germany)
Authors:Winfried Schröder  Gunther Schmidt  Hubert Bast  Roland Pesch  Ellen Kiel
Institution:1. California Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Monitoring Branch, California Department of Pesticide Regulation, 1001 I Street, Sacramento, CA, 95812, USA
Abstract:This project was designed to establish baseline aquatic biological community structure and physical habitat conditions in select wadeable streams within the California Central Valley. A secondary objective was to evaluate possible water quality differences between site types and seasons. Two agricultural and two urban streams were monitored in spring and fall for two consecutive years beginning in the fall of 2002. Bioassessment sampling was conducted according to modified US EPA methods. The study included physical habitat assessment, water and sediment chemical analysis and characterization of the benthic macroinvertebrate community at each site. Water samples were analyzed for selected organophosphate insecticides, pyrethroid insecticides and herbicides, while sediment samples were analyzed for pyrethroids only. All sites had substantial physical habitat and water quality impairments, and the absence of pollution intolerant macroinvertebrates and dominance of pollution tolerant macroinvertebrates were indications of biological impairment. Due to the limited amount of water quality and pesticide data collected, it was not possible to definitively demonstrate any cause and effect relationships between BMI community structure and water quality or pesticide concentrations. Though most physical habitat parameters were similar and EPA physical habitat scores revealed on no significant differences between urban and agricultural sites (P? = ?0.290), a significant difference was seen in substrate embeddedness (P? = ?0.020). Dominant taxon found at all sites were chironomids, amphipods, and oligochaetes. Benthic macroinvertebrate metrics were significantly different between both types of sites (P? = ?0.001) and seasons (P? = ?0.014). Chironomidae taxon and those of the functional feeding group scrapers were greater at urban sites, while those of the functional feeding group filterers were greater at agricultural sites. In addition, the metric groups Chironomidae, filterers, and predators were found in greater numbers in the spring than the fall.
Keywords:Anopheles            Climate change  Geostatistics  GIS  Risk mapping  Malaria tertiana
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