Establishment of turbidity forecasting model and early-warning system for source water turbidity management using back-propagation artificial neural network algorithm and probability analysis

The purpose of this study is to establish a turbidity forecasting model as well as an early-warning system for turbidity management using rainfall records as the input variables. The Taipei Water Source Domain was employed as the study area, and ANOVA analysis showed that the accumulative rainfall records of 1-day Ping-lin, 2-day Ping-lin, 2-day Fei-tsui, 2-day Shi-san-gu, 2-day Tai-pin and 2-day Tong-hou were the six most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. The artificial neural network model was developed and proven capable of predicting the turbidity concentration in the investigated catchment downstream area. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to developing the turbidity early-warning system. Using a previously determined turbidity as the threshold, the rainfall criterion, above which the downstream turbidity would possibly exceed this respective threshold turbidity, for the investigated rain gauge stations was determined. An exemplary illustration demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed turbidity early-warning system as a precautionary alarm of possible significant increase of downstream turbidity. This study is the first report of the establishment of the turbidity early-warning system. Hopefully, this system can be applied to source water turbidity forecasting during storm events and provide a useful reference for subsequent adjustment of drinking water treatment operation.