On the estimation of phosphorus from the Niagara River to Lake Ontario

A predictive or model based approach to making inferences about the loading of a contaminant from a point source is presented and illustrated by estimating the total phosphorus, TP, loading from the Niagara River to Lake Ontario for the years 1967 to 1982. Information about explanatory variables and/or autodependence among successive observations can be easily included in the model and this allows more accurate inferences to be made. The results of the application to the Niagara River show a major decrease in TP loadings has occurred during the study period.