Modeling the spatial pattern of farmland using GIS and multiple logistic regression: a case study of Maotiao River Basin, Guizhou Province, China |
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Authors: | Qiu-Hao Huang Yun-Long Cai Jian Peng |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Resources, Environment and Geography, Center for Land Study, Peking University, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, Beijing, China, 100871 |
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Abstract: | Land use change is an important topic in the field of global environmental change and sustainable development. Land use change
modeling has attracted substantial attention because it helps researchers understand the mechanisms of land use change and
assists regulatory bodies in formulating relevant policies. Maotiao River Basin is located in the province of Guizhou, China,
which has a developed agricultural industry in the karst mountain areas. This paper selected biophysical and social–economic
factors as independent variables, and constructed a multiple logistic regression of farmland spatial distribution probability
by random sampling. Then, by using GIS technology and integrating the 2000 data, this study predicted the farmland spatial
pattern. When the predicted map was compared with the actual farmland map for 2000, we noted that 71% of the simulation is
in accordance with the 2000 farmland pattern. The result satisfactorily proves the reasonability and applicability of our
model. |
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Keywords: | land use pattern farmland spatial pattern model GIS multiple logistic regression Maotiao River Basin China |
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