Integrated Ambient and Microenvironment Model for Estimation of PM10 Exposures of Children in Annual and Episode Settings

Particulate matter air pollution is estimated to cause in the order of 350,000 excess deaths in the European Union calling for policy development and evaluation tools. In the current work, a model for PM₁₀ exposures of children is developed using microenvironment time activities and infiltration of ambient pollution indoors, both evaluated against observations earlier and integrated with city-wide air quality models in the current work. The model is demonstrated using data from two cities in Italy. High-end short-term exposures are characterized by an episode-day situation in Turin, and annual mean exposures in downtown Bologna. The air quality model was unable to capture the highest levels during the episode, and therefore, the exposure model was adjusted using observed–modeled ratio from a monitoring station. Air quality model performance for the annual levels was significantly better. Annual exposure variability within the target population was 1.5-fold in the downtown area Bologna and tenfold during the episode day in Turin.