Towards a control model for the Murray Mouth

The River Murray in Australia drains an area of one million square kilometres, but in 1981 the mouth closed for some weeks. It is important that this be prevented, as the environmental consequences of permanent closure are severe. The size of the mouth is influenced by wind and wave activity at the mouth, and by the river flow, which is controlled by a system of weirs and barrages. We have been able to demonstrate using recursive estimation techniques that river flow is the most important explanatory variable for mouth size, so that the proper management of flow alone has the potential to prevent future closures.