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气象因子对臭氧的影响及其在空气质量预报中的应用
引用本文:张灿,蒋昌潭,罗财红,刘姣姣,叶堤,谯捷,韩世刚.气象因子对臭氧的影响及其在空气质量预报中的应用[J].中国环境监测,2017,33(4):221-228.
作者姓名:张灿  蒋昌潭  罗财红  刘姣姣  叶堤  谯捷  韩世刚
作者单位:重庆市生态环境监测中心, 重庆 401147;城市大气环境综合观测与污染防控重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 401147,重庆市生态环境监测中心, 重庆 401147;城市大气环境综合观测与污染防控重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 401147,重庆市生态环境监测中心, 重庆 401147;城市大气环境综合观测与污染防控重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 401147,重庆市生态环境监测中心, 重庆 401147;城市大气环境综合观测与污染防控重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 401147,重庆市生态环境监测中心, 重庆 401147;城市大气环境综合观测与污染防控重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 401147,重庆市环境监察总队, 重庆 401147,重庆市气象服务中心, 重庆 401147
基金项目:重庆市环境保护局环保科技项目[2015(7号)]
摘    要:为提高重庆市臭氧(O_3)预报准确率,利用2013—2015年5—10月O_3监测数据和气象数据,通过主成分分析、逐步回归分析等方法,确定了影响重庆O_3浓度的主要气象因素为最高温度、温差、太阳辐射、降水量、相对湿度、水气压和压差;通过基于O_3污染水平相似的主要气象控制因子筛选和最优组合的预报结果优化方法,提高了O_3预报准确率,使2016年5—8月O_3的AQI类别预报准确率由57.7%增至72.4%,O_3超标的预报准确率由38%增至46%。

关 键 词:气象因子  臭氧  预报
收稿时间:2016/11/11 0:00:00
修稿时间:2017/1/12 0:00:00

Effects of Meteorological Conditions on Ozone and Its Application in Air Quality Forecast
ZHANG Can,JIANG Changtan,LUO Caihong,LIU Jiaojiao,YE Di,QIAO Jie and HAN Shigang.Effects of Meteorological Conditions on Ozone and Its Application in Air Quality Forecast[J].Environmental Monitoring in China,2017,33(4):221-228.
Authors:ZHANG Can  JIANG Changtan  LUO Caihong  LIU Jiaojiao  YE Di  QIAO Jie and HAN Shigang
Institution:Ecological and Environment Monitoring Centre of Chongqing, Chongqing 401147, China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Urban Atmospheric Environment for Integrated Observation and Pollution Prevention and Control, Chongqing 401147, China,Ecological and Environment Monitoring Centre of Chongqing, Chongqing 401147, China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Urban Atmospheric Environment for Integrated Observation and Pollution Prevention and Control, Chongqing 401147, China,Ecological and Environment Monitoring Centre of Chongqing, Chongqing 401147, China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Urban Atmospheric Environment for Integrated Observation and Pollution Prevention and Control, Chongqing 401147, China,Ecological and Environment Monitoring Centre of Chongqing, Chongqing 401147, China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Urban Atmospheric Environment for Integrated Observation and Pollution Prevention and Control, Chongqing 401147, China,Ecological and Environment Monitoring Centre of Chongqing, Chongqing 401147, China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Urban Atmospheric Environment for Integrated Observation and Pollution Prevention and Control, Chongqing 401147, China,Chongqing Municipal Environmental Supervise Corps, Chongqing 401147, China and Chongqing Meteorological Service Centre, Chongqing 401147, China
Abstract:In order to improve the accuracy of O3 forecast in Chongqing, O3 monitoring concentration and meteorological data from May to October in 2013-2015 were used to analyze the effects of meteorological factors on O3 concentration by principal component analysis and stepwise regression analysis. The result showed that O3 concentration was influenced by maximum temperature, temperature difference, radiation, precipitation, humidity, vapor pressure and pressure difference. By selection of major meteorological control factors on O3 and the optimal combination of control factors based on O3 concentration similarity, the accuracy of O3 forecast was improved from 57.7% to 72.4% and the accuracy of O3 over standard forecast was improved from 38% to 46% during May to August in 2016.
Keywords:meteorological factors  ozone  forecast
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