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上海市秋季典型PM2.5污染过程数值预报分析
引用本文:王茜.上海市秋季典型PM2.5污染过程数值预报分析[J].中国环境监测,2014,30(2):7-13.
作者姓名:王茜
作者单位:上海市环境监测中心, 上海 200030
基金项目:上海市科委科研计划项目(12dz1202700);上海市环保局青年基金项目(2013-63);上海市环保局基金沪环科(2013-08,2012-01,2013-03)
摘    要:基于2012年10月上海出现的一次典型PM2.5污染案例,验证评估上海市空气质量数值预报系统Model-3/CMAQ预报性能,采用过程分析技术,定量评估不同大气物理化学过程对上海代表性点位PM2.5浓度变化的作用规律。结果表明:Model-3/CMAQ模式系统能较好地反映PM2.5的浓度变化趋势与特点。对于上海市区点位(徐汇上师大)和东南部点位(奉贤海湾和浦东惠南),PM2.5浓度上升主要受本地源排放影响,其贡献比例超过40%,其次是区域大气传输作用的影响。对于西北部点位(崇明监测站和青浦淀山湖),区域大气传输是PM2.5浓度上升的主要原因,贡献比例超过70%,其次是源排放。各点位PM2.5浓度的主要去除途径均为大气传输,贡献比例均超过70%,其次是干沉降。气溶胶过程对PM2.5主要起二次颗粒物生成的作用,特别是市区及东南部点位,贡献比例较西北部点位更高。

关 键 词:上海  PM2.5  CMAQ模式  过程分析  积分过程速率
收稿时间:2014/2/26 0:00:00
修稿时间:2014/2/28 0:00:00

Numerical Forecast Analysis of Typical PM2.5 Pollution Episode over Shanghai in Autumn
WANG Qian.Numerical Forecast Analysis of Typical PM2.5 Pollution Episode over Shanghai in Autumn[J].Environmental Monitoring in China,2014,30(2):7-13.
Authors:WANG Qian
Institution:Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Centre, Shanghai 200030, China
Abstract:Based on a typical PM2.5 pollution episode in Shanghai in October 2012, the forecast performance of Shanghai Air Quality Numerical Forecast System, Model-3/CMAQ, was evaluated. Integrated process rates analysis was used to investigate the influences of various atmospheric processes on the evolution of ambient PM2.5 during the pollution episode. The results showed that Model-3/CMAQ model system could well forecast the trends and characteristics in PM2.5 concentration. The near-ground PM2.5 concentration in urban site(Xuhui shangshida) and south eastern sites(Fengxian Haiwan,Pudong Huinan) increased mainly due to local emission, which contributed over 40 percent, then transport processes. In North western sites(Chongming jiancezhan, Qingpu dianshanhu), transport processes was the main process increasing PM2.5 concentration, which contributed over 70 percent, then dry deposition. Aerosol processes showed positive contribution to PM2.5 concentration in all sites, especially in urban site and south eastern sites, which contributed more than in north western sites.
Keywords:Shanghai  PM2  5  CMAQ  process analysis  integrated process rates
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